Facts About Midterm Elections You Probably Didn’t Know
Midterm elections were held as early as 1790, after Washington became president, before political parties were formally established. Early factions had already formed around leaders like Alexander Hamilton’s Federalists and Thomas Jefferson’s Democratic-Republicans. Voters used these elections to rebalance power, expressing approval or dissatisfaction between presidential terms.
Turnout was once far higher. In the late 1800s participation regularly exceeded 70%. By contrast, turnout fell to about 36% in 2014 and rose to roughly 50% in 2018, the highest level in more than a century yet still far below typical presidential election turnout.
The president’s party almost always loses seats in modern history. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms, with an average loss of about 26 seats. Senate losses average 4 seats. The exceptions were 1998, when Democrats gained House seats amid backlash over President Clinton’s impeachment proceedings related to the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and 2002, when Republicans gained seats in the post-9/11 climate.
A small number of races often determine control. In recent cycles, fewer than 40 of the 435 House districts are considered truly competitive. In 2022, more than 85% of House seats were decided by margins greater than 10%, concentrating political power in a narrow slice of voters.
Midterms have repeatedly triggered party realignments. The 1854 midterms collapsed the Whig Party over slavery. The 1894 midterms dismantled Democratic control during a severe economic panic. The 1934 midterms strengthened the New Deal coalition, reshaping American politics.
Early voting has reshaped midterm Election Days. In 2022, over 46% of midterm ballots were cast before Election Day compared with under 20% decades earlier.
The upcoming midterms will show if historical patterns of power shifts and voter behavior continue.
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